Posts Tagged revenue
“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness . . . ” So begins Charles Dickens’s novel A Tale of Two Cities. It is set in in the years prior to the French revolution, but actually applies to the recent performance of Republicans in the Pennsylvania legislature.
As official Harrisburg prepares for what is shaping up to be another epic budget battle, the big question is: which GOP will show up in 2017? Will it be the Republican-controlled legislature that last year stood its ground and fought Governor Tom Wolf’s historic tax and spending proposals, or will it be the GOP that this year folded like a cheap suit and approved $1.4 billion in new spending?
The $1.4 billion spending hike might not qualify as the worst of times, but coming on the heels of a successful struggle against the Wolf Administration’s spending demands it did leave a lot of folks puzzled. After winning the longest budget fight in state history, why turn around and cave in months later? This leaves most observers – and quite a few participants – at a loss when it comes to predicting how the 2017 budget war will unfold.
We are certain of a few things.
The toxic stew of tax increases and new taxes cooked up to pay for this year’s massive spending increase has failed to live up to expectations. To date, revenue collections for the 2017-2018 fiscal year are running $261.8 million below estimates. This, coupled with a “structural budget deficit” pegged at over a billion dollars means the new budget will begin with a significant gap between spending and revenue.
We also can be sure that Governor Wolf will again demand massive spending increases and the taxes to pay for that spending. He used his budget address this year to lecture the General Assembly for its refusal to accede to his spending demands. Since most of his priorities have not been funded chances are they will be dusted off and included in his new budget proposal.
But should Republicans sit back and wait for the governor to set the agenda? Leo Knepper of the Citizens Alliance of Pennsylvania, a pro-growth PAC, suggests a different course of action. “If Republicans in the General Assembly were smart, they would upend a long-standing budget tradition and go on offense,” Knepper wrote in a recent policy brief. “(They) should ignore tradition and pre-empt the Governor’s budget address with a plan of their own.” Knepper observed this would “force the governor to play defense rather than the usual offensive position granted to governors.”
The question remains, however, whether or not legislative Republicans – or at least the leaders who actually sit at the negotiating table – want to go on offense. Will the resolute leaders who fought and won the first budget battle show up to play, or the ones who forfeited this year’s game?
The final certainty is that all this will play out against the backdrop of the rapidly approaching 2018 election for Governor. For his part, Governor Wolf will want to deliver the goods of higher spending to his largely urban constituency.
It won’t be so simple for Republicans.
With a number of legislators, including leaders who will negotiate the new budget, eyeing a race for the Republican gubernatorial nomination, the upcoming budget battle is fraught with peril. There are pressures for leaders to “be responsible” and give into spending demands. But with a veto proof Senate majority and a historically large majority in the House, voters are not likely to be either understanding or forgiving if the GOP doesn’t stand firm.
Will it be the “best of times” with legislative Republicans going on offense and standing up to a tax and spend governor, or will it be the “worst of times” with the taxpayers of Penn’s Woods getting stuck with yet another round of tax hikes? As the budget process begins a new cycle it is impossible to tell which of the GOP’s split personalities will emerge dominant in 2017, but both the pocketbooks of taxpayers and the political fortunes of many politicians will be affected by the outcome.
(Lowman S. Henry is Chairman & CEO of the Lincoln Institute and host of the weekly Lincoln Radio Journal. His e-mail address is firstname.lastname@example.org.)
Permission to reprint is granted provided author and affiliation are cited.
By Lowman S. Henry
As August melts into September the halls of the state capitol building are relatively quiet. This is a marked contrast to a year ago when state government was in what turned out to be the early phases of the longest budget stalemate in state history. This year the budget, or at least the spending part of it, was done reasonably close to the constitutionally-mandated June 30th deadline, the revenue component followed several weeks later.
But is this just the eye of the storm?
In capitulating to too many of Governor Tom Wolf’s spending demands the state legislature larded up the budget with nearly $1.4 billion in new expenditures. This despite claims of a $1.5 billion dollar “structural deficit” the governor claimed needed to be addressed. Even those using Common Core math can calculate that left the state nearly $3 billion in the hole.
To pay for this spending orgy some $650 million in new taxes were cobbled together, and accounting gimmicks employed, to produce a “balanced” budget. But the budget isn’t really balanced and even that $650 million contains projected revenue that will never actually materialize. For example, lawmakers planned to charge the state’s casinos $1 million each to purchase 24-hour liquor licenses. Apparently nobody thought to ask if the casinos wanted such licenses, as there now appears to be no takers.
The budget also includes revenue from on-line gambling. The problem is legislation has yet to be passed authorizing on-line gambling. After adopting the budget, the General Assembly adjourned for a two month recess delaying any possible revenue from that source deep into the fiscal year.
And, predictably, the taxes that were hiked on existing businesses are having a dramatic negative impact. A 40% tax imposed on vaping supplies is driving many vaping stores – almost all of which are small businesses – out of business. That means not only will projected revenue from the tax fall short, but the state will also lose out on sales tax revenue as the stores shutter their doors.
That Republicans in the legislature caved into $1.4 billion in new spending defied logic. The GOP had fought an epic budget battle with the governor the previous fiscal year and won. Not only did they win, but not a single lawmaker seeking re-election was denied by voters due to the budget fight. After posting a historic win, Republicans essentially forfeited the next game.
All of these elements are coming together to produce the perfect fiscal storm as budget talks begin for next year. Don’t forget that “structural deficit” of $1.4 billion hasn’t been addressed. A significant portion of the new taxes enacted this year will fail to materialize. And, Governor Wolf continues to demand a lengthy menu of spending hikes – and the taxes to pay for them.
Making matters worse the governor and the legislature have not been able to agree on how to deal with cost drivers, particularly the skyrocketing cost of public employee pensions. Pension costs are gobbling up the lion’s share of any new revenue produced by a still slow-growing state economy. Republicans have passed pension reform only to see it vetoed by Governor Wolf. There are new legislative proposals on the drawing board, but they fall woefully short of resolving the problem. Even if some reform is enacted it will likely have minimal impact on the upcoming 2017-18 state budget.
Given all of this, will Republicans stick to their pledge that without addressing cost drivers they will not enact broad-based tax hikes – such as raising the personal income tax, expanding and/or raising sales taxes – or will they again cave into the governor’s tax and spending demands? Much rides on the outcome of this looming budget fight, primarily the fiscal health of the commonwealth.
But, 2018 is a gubernatorial election year and this budget will be enacted as the campaign heats up. Governor Wolf, if he seeks re-election, will want to show his base voters that he delivered the goods of higher spending. Republican voters will judge the GOP-controlled legislature by their ability to resist higher spending and more taxes. Add these competing political imperatives to the state’s perilous fiscal circumstances and we should brace ourselves for the second wave of the hurricane.
(Lowman S. Henry is Chairman & CEO of the Lincoln Institute and host of the weekly Lincoln Radio Journal. His e-mail address is email@example.com.)
Permission to reprint is granted provided author and affiliation are cited.
Radio Program Schedule for the week of January 19, 2013 – January 25, 2013
This week on American Radio Journal:
- Lowman Henry talks with Scott Lincicome of the CATO Institute about the economic impact of trade subsidies
- Barney Keller of the Club for Growth has the Real Story behind pork barrel spending in the super storm Sandy relief bill
- Adam Tragone and David Harsanyi of Human Events have an Off the Cuff look at the looming fight over the national debt ceiling
- Col. Frank Ryan, USMC (Ret.) has an American Radio Journal commentary on some good points to the fiscal cliff deal
This week on Lincoln Radio Journal:
- Eric Boehm and Melissa Daniels have news headlines from www.paindependent.com
- Pennsylvania Revenue Secretary Dan Meuser joins David Taylor of the Pennsylvania Manufacturers Association and Kevin Shivers from the PA Chapter of the National Federation of Independent Business for a Capitol Watch look at placing the Pennsylvania Lottery under private management
- Lowman Henry has a Town Hall Commentary on labor union violence
Visit the program web sites for more information about air times. There, you can also stream live or listen to past programs!